@bubu12
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19
Symptoms
Findings In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious
period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have
COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half
of all transmission.
Results The
baseline assumptions for the model were that peak infectiousness occurred
at the median of symptom onset and that 30% of individuals with infection never
develop symptoms and are 75% as infectious as those who do develop symptoms.
Combined, these baseline assumptions
imply that persons with infection
who never develop symptoms may account
for approximately 24% of all transmission. In this base case, 59% of all
transmission came from asymptomatic transmission, comprising 35% from
presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never develop symptoms.
Under a broad range of values for each of these assumptions, at least 50% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections was estimated to have originated from
exposure to individuals with infection but without symptoms.
« An assumption of an
assumption, on top of an assumption »